The outbreak hit the global end market. Fortunately, China has passed the worst

Affected by the outbreak of covid-19, many of China's key technology industry centers have been shut down in manufacturing, transportation, logistics and other industries, leading to delays in the resumption of work and production after the traditional lunar New Year holiday. Companies delayed planned plant shutdowns for several weeks, and many have been returning to work since Feb. 17. But the impact on logistics, Labour supply and transport could last for weeks, if not months. As a result, the covid-19 outbreak has begun to have an impact on the global end-device market by 2020.

According to IDC, we have compiled a series of news and underlying statistics, insights, and assumptions over the past few weeks about the covid-19 outbreak, as well as its impact on the end device market as of march:

According to the world health organization (WHO) 's daily status report, as of March 18, the global total of confirmed cases had reached nearly 200,000 (198,412) and nearly 8,000 (7,984) deaths.

Suppliers rushed to produce components at the end of the year, leaving inventories of components well stocked, but the logistics shutdown shut down major global supply chains.

While factories, roads and transportation are slowly returning, China's key technology industry center will be hit hard by the quarantine and its policies.

The Chinese provinces hardest hit by the outbreak are home to key components such as panels, touch sensors, optical electronics and printed circuit boards.

As things stand, the equipment manufacturing industry will suffer significant losses in February, and the uncertainty will increase in March and beyond until the outbreak stabilizes.

Apple (aapl) said in a statement on Feb. 17 that quarterly revenue forecasts will be difficult to meet due to the COVID 19 outbreak, and more companies will do the same.

IDC believes the outbreak of covid-19 will bring more uncertainty than in the past. IDC also predicted the impact of the epidemic situation based on the probability scenario -- the 'U' shaped service curve, which included optimistic scenario, probability scenario and pessimistic scenario:

Optimistic scenario

In an optimistic scenario, the impact on the supply chain will end this quarter. China's demand in the current quarter will be met with heavy demand, but will return to normal immediately thereafter. Global sales of smartphones and Personal Computing Devices will then recover, with a 'v-shaped recovery' in 2020.

The 'V' shaped recovery curve means China's key technology hubs will bounce back quickly after widespread city blockades and factory closures. Supply-side shipments were hit hardest in q2 2020 and returned to normal by q3. The impact on the demand side will be limited to China, where the recovery will be underpinned by a surge of Chinese shoppers as the weather warms in May. Smartphones are expected to drop from +1.5% to +0.8% this year. For personal computer devices, the forecast is revised up to -5.6% from -6.8% if the second half is strong.

Probabilistic scenarios

This scenario describes the multi-season recovery of manufacturing and logistics activities, based on the premise of continued traffic disruption and slower recovery of Chinese workers. China's demand shock will continue for several quarters, but will ease by the end of the year thanks to government stimulus and subsidies. Global sales of smartphones and personal computer devices will show a 'u-shaped recovery' in early 2021, while demand in surrounding regions will also be temporarily depressed.

The 'U' shape of the recovery suggests that the effects of the outbreak will continue for several quarters, with the low point still being the second quarter of the year, when supply chain performance is weak. By the end of the year, supply chain recovery was still lagging behind demand as conditions began to recover in the third quarter, but heavy demand helped the market recover slowly through the end of the year and early next year. The smartphone market is expected to fall to -2.3% from +1.5% and the PC device market to -9.0% from -6.8%.

Pessimistic scenario

In the pessimistic case, the supply chain disruption throughout the year will still exist, logistics, transportation will be affected by a similar degree. The outbreak has spread around the world. COVID-19 will cause a global economic recession while claiming a large number of lives. The global end-equipment market is on an 'L' shaped recession curve, with falling buyer confidence, tighter budgets, and a reshuffling of the industry that will take a year or two to recover.

In this scenario, the impact of Chinese manufacturing and logistics will last for a whole year. Due to the inspection of epidemic prevention and control and the closure of the factory, the operation of the equipment assembly supply chain will be interrupted periodically and enter a stop-and-go state. Due to the uncertain outlook of the outbreak, consumer and employee confidence is in a low state, the factory production is not optimized for the whole year, and will spread to other countries, forcing companies to permanently close or adjust, and leading to major market, distribution, and supply chain shocks.

Travel, transport and logistics will suffer in areas where travel bans and customs detentions are in place. Big global events, such as the 2020 summer Olympics in Tokyo, will also be thrown into turmoil, with the recovery process likely to take years. In this scenario, IDC's forecast for the smartphone market will be revised down to -10.7% and the PC device market to -14.6%.

IDC notes that when we look at the response of end-device markets, consumer confidence, global supply chains and the global economy during major outbreaks such as SARS, avian flu and zika, we will find a common point: in the most urgent cases, humans can always find a solution. While the outlook is uncertain, the recovery -- from global markets to consumer confidence -- is in no doubt. Modern humans may not have experienced anything on this scale, but we have survived every outbreak before.